The global debt burden
Global debt rose to a record high in 2024. Companies, households and governments owed a total of $318 trillion, around €303,000 trillion. That’s $7 trillion more than in 2023. However, the increase in debt was smaller than in 2023, when debt rose by $16 trillion. Total debt as a percentage of gross domestic product also rose for the first time in four years.
The US Congressional Accounting Office estimates that the country’s national debt will increase by trillions. This week, it has already led to higher interest rates on US government bonds. Trump intends to hand out a lot of gifts with his new tax plan, which will increase the debt burden even more. It was already estimated that it would be 52 trillion in ten years, but after the introduction of the new law, it could increase by 3.3 trillion dollars. A measure that is against the grain of Elon Musk , who was trying to reduce the US debt ceiling. The two have also not been on speaking terms for some time . Trump’s tax law ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ bundles his entire domestic agenda into one gigantic plan of more than 1,000 pages. The law contains significant tax cuts for both ordinary Americans and the very richest. To finance this, Trump wants to make major cuts to health care and social security. For example, millions of people would lose their health insurance due to cuts to social security and health care. It will significantly increase the national debt in ten years because the law provides for trillions of dollars in tax cuts, which will mainly benefit the richest Americans. The law was passed on July 3. Despite resistance from Elon Musk and some American politicians, the House of Representatives also approved it. Trump signed the law on July 4 during the Independence Day celebration, after which Elon Musk immediately founded “The America Party” the day after. According to Elon, the country needs an alternative universal Democratic-Republican party in which the people have a voice. But what also plays a role for Elon Musk are the billions in emission rights that he will lose.
From 2021, the emission rules for new cars sold in the EU will become much stricter. The entire ‘fleet’ of new cars from a manufacturer will then be allowed to emit an average of 95 grams of CO2 per kilometer. Tesla and Fiat Chrysler will immediately form a pool and can therefore add the fleets together, after which the average emissions of this pool will be calculated. Because Tesla cars are completely emission-free, it significantly reduces Fiat Chrysler’s average. Thanks to Tesla, Fiat Chrysler can continue to make cars with very high fuel consumption without being fined. And thanks to Fiat Chrysler, Tesla can maintain its liquidity for a while. Until now, CO2 trading has been an important source of income for Tesla. In 2024, Tesla earned 2.76 billion dollars in revenue from the sale of emission rights, an increase of 54% compared to the 1.79 billion dollars in 2023. In 2020, this already amounted to 1 billion. Trump’s new “Big Beautiful Bill” seeks to limit or eliminate programs such as the California Air Resources Board (CARB) Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) program and also eliminates federal EV tax credits ($7,500 for new EVs and $4,000 for used EVs) effective September 30, 2025, which could reduce demand for electric vehicles and indirectly impact the value of emissions credits, as fewer automakers will need the credits as the EV market shrinks, threatening Tesla’s revenue. This could have a significant impact, as emissions trading has generated approximately $11 billion for Tesla since 2015.
Trump reacted with agitation to Elon Musk’s response, writing on his socials : “It saddens me to see how Elon Musk has completely “gone off the rails” over the last 5 weeks and has basically become a TRAIN WRECK. He even wants to start a Third Political Party, despite the fact that they have never been able to do that in the United States – the system does not seem to be designed for them. Third Parties are good for creating Complete and Total DISRUPTION & CHAOS, and we have enough of that with the radical left Democrats, who have lost their self-confidence and their minds! Republicans on the other hand are a smooth running “machine” who just passed the largest bill of its kind in the history of our country. It’s a Great Bill, but unfortunately for Elon, it repeals the ridiculous Electric Vehicle (EV) Mandate, which would have forced everyone to buy an electric car within a short period of time. I have been strongly against that from the beginning. People can now buy whatever they want – gasoline, hybrids (which are doing very well), or new technologies like those on the market – No More EV Mandate. I campaigned for this for two years and, honestly, when Elon gave me his full and unquestioned support, I asked him if he knew I was ending the EV mandate – it was in every speech I gave and every conversation I had. He said he had no problem with it – I was very surprised! Furthermore, Elon asked if one of his good friends could run NASA, and while I liked his friend very much, I was surprised to hear that he was a Democrat through and through who had never spent money on a Republican before. Elon probably was too. I also found it inappropriate that a very good friend of Elon’s, who worked in aerospace, would run NASA when NASA plays such a major role in Elon’s business. My number one job is to protect the American people!”
The US national debt now stands at $36.9 trillion. Every two seconds, $100,000 is added to that amount. The debt is 23 percent larger than the entire US economy. The debt is equal to 93 percent of the size of the global economy. Ten years ago, it was 78 percent. Foreign holders hold a significant portion of this debt via government bonds, totaling $8.513 trillion as of December 2024.
China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasuries by about 37% since the summer of 2017 and is no longer America’s largest creditor; that position is now occupied by Japan. According to the U.S. Treasury Department, China is owed $759 billion (as of December 2024). Japan holds $1.060 trillion, followed by the United Kingdom (about $693 billion), Luxembourg (about $345 billion), the Cayman Islands (about $323 billion), Ireland (about $299 billion), Belgium (about $285 billion), Canada (about $281 billion), Switzerland (about $275 billion), and Taiwan (about $244 billion), based on the most recent data available (March 2024 for most countries).
Germany and Italy bring back gold
In Germany and Italy, concerns are growing about the safety of gold reserves stored in New York, especially since Donald Trump returned to the White House. Policymakers in Germany and Italy are being urged by the Taxpayers Association of Europe (TAE) to stop keeping their gold reserves at the Federal Reserve in New York amid Trump’s repeated attacks on the US central bank and rising geopolitical tensions. The gold is held in vaults at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Trump has repeatedly attacked the US central bank, raising questions in Germany about the Fed’s independence and the safety of the gold.
At an average interest rate of 4.2%, the US pays about $24-28 billion to China and $35 billion to Japan annually. The total interest burden is $1.3 trillion, financed by $5.49 trillion in tax revenues. The budget deficit is $1.9 trillion, and the CBO projects that the debt could reach 180% of GDP in 2050 under unchanged policies.
About $8 trillion is being refinanced; without this, all taxes would go to debt repayment, which is unsustainable. The 10-year yield on US Treasuries rose to 4.34 percent and the 30-year yield is at 4.82 percent. The dollar is increasingly losing strength. The Russian ruble has had an unprecedentedly strong period this year. For example, one euro now yields 93 rubles, which was around 117 rubles at the beginning of this year. The trend is also visible against the Chinese yuan. At the beginning of this year, one Chinese yuan was worth 13 rubles, now it is 11 rubles. Since the turn of the year, the currency has gained about a quarter of its value against the dollar. Where a dollar yielded 110 rubles at the beginning of this year, it is now only 82 rubles. China’s sale of bonds could seriously weaken the dollar and the US. The dollar has fallen to its lowest level in three years at the opening of the US stock exchanges. On the currency market, the euro was quoted at 1.1530 dollars.
The US is also under severe economic pressure. The number of corporate bankruptcies there rose sharply in 2024, reaching the highest level in fourteen years. No fewer than 694 companies filed for bankruptcy protection that year, according to figures from S&P Global. More than 17% of Americans pay more than $1,000 a month in car loans (Tesla Model Y: $450, Ford Explorer: $650, BMW X5: $900). Companies such as Hooters, founded in 1983, are approaching bankruptcy. After shrinking since 2018 and a corona blow, 44 branches closed; with $35 million in support, Hooters hopes to reorganize within 3-4 months. Red Lobster, TGI Fridays and Burger-Fi also filed for deferment of payments.
Multinational Procter & Gamble plans to cut 7,000 jobs (15% of all employees) with office jobs over the next two years. The company will also sell or eliminate well-known brands. Procter & Gamble employs more than 100,000 people worldwide. Denny’s, with $376 million in debt, closed 88 locations and plans to close 70 more, including selling 100 of its own restaurants to franchisees. The regional central bank in New York has released new figures on household debt.
The bank says that in the first quarter of this year alone, 167 billion dollars was added, the total debt mountain of American households amounts to 18,200 billion dollars, more than 18 trillion. For comparison: in 2020 that was still 14,000 billion. More than 4 percent of that debt is in some form of default. Credit rating agency Moody’s lowered the credit rating of the United States on May 16, 2025. The country has lost the highest rating because of the expected higher national debt and because it has to pay more interest. Moody’s is the last of the three major credit rating agencies to lower the American credit rating. In 2011, Standard & Poor’s already removed the highest credit rating and in 2023 Fitch did the same
Trade war
China
Since 2000, the US has lost 5 million manufacturing jobs, partly due to high tariffs on US products in China and low tariffs on Chinese goods in the US. For years, the US has been burdened with import duties. President Donald Trump wants to strike back and impose higher import duties of his own, in order to reduce the US debt burden, strengthen the economy, rebuild industrial capacity and reduce foreign dependence. Import duties on Chinese products were raised to 125 percent. Trump later backtracked and excluded several electronic products from the import duties.
This includes smartphones, PCs, computer monitors and memory cards. It means, among other things, that the import duty of up to 145 percent on products imported from China does not apply to these electronic products. This has major advantages for American tech giants, including Apple, which have huge factories in China to make their products. China responded to Trump’s import duties and fentanyl criticism with tariffs of 10-15 percent on American products and an additional 34 percent duty. Premier Li Qiang announced in his annual speech a 7.2 percent defense increase to protect “sovereignty and security,” with more military training.
Now that Trump is pressuring other countries to restrict trade with China in exchange for tariff exemptions from the United States, China wants to protect its own rights and interests and warns countries not to make deals that could harm it. Two Boeings delivered to China were sent back. China also recently canceled orders totaling 12,000 tons of pork. Since the imposition of a 145 percent tariff on Chinese products, the number of container bookings to the US has fallen sharply.
The Port of Los Angeles expects about a third fewer containers in the week of May 4 than last year. Air freight companies are also seeing fewer bookings. Chinese airlines are immediately banned from ordering new aircraft from the American manufacturer Boeing by the government in Beijing. However, the components of the domestic aircraft manufacturer come largely from the US.
The recent talks between the United States and China went well. The United States and China are reducing their mutual import duties. For example, China will continue to face import duties of 10 percent for products exported to the US, while American products will be subject to duties of 55 percent when imported into China. China will supply necessary raw materials and Chinese students will be allowed to study in the US again.
The framework agreement that China and the US reached earlier this month in Geneva, Switzerland, has now been signed. This means that China will start supplying rare earth metals to the US. The US will withdraw measures that it announced against China, so that, among other things, the export of ethane to China will start again.
Canada
Starting March 4, 2025, Canada began retaliating with 25% tariffs on U.S. goods, but Trump then doubled the levies to 50%. Canada also imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, to which China responded with 100% tariffs on Canadian products. Trump noted that under the USMCA, cars and parts from Canada and Mexico would be exempt from the additional tariffs until April 2, 2025, but warned that the exemption would disappear after that.
On April 2, 2025, the introduction of reciprocal import duties for 185 countries began: the EU received 20%, the UK 10%, Canada and Mexico 25% extra duty. Australia announced that it would not take countermeasures, while Canadian Prime Minister Carney did promise countermeasures. Canada immediately imposed additional duties on US goods worth 29.8 billion Canadian dollars (19 billion euros). On April 3, 2025, the US stock markets plummeted: the S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell 4%, the Nasdaq 5%. US airlines suffered heavy losses: Delta Air Lines -9%, American Airlines -8%, United Airlines -12%. In three months, the ‘Big Three’ lost more than a third of their stock market value.
Big tech lost $772 billion in market value. Tesla and crypto also lost billions. The dollar fell by 3% to 0.91 euro cents, and Brent oil became 2.5% cheaper at just under 64 dollars. The Amsterdam stock exchange also turned blood red for a short time. Investors withdrew investments en masse, followed by sharp declines in Europe and Asia: Shanghai -8%, Nikkei Tokyo -8%, Hong Kong -12.5%, Taiwan -10%, India and Australia -4%. The MidKap fell 0.2% to 847.89 points, London -1.2%. Billionaire Bill Ackman warned of an “economic nuclear winter” if Trump did not suspend his tariffs.
Trump immediately broke off negotiations on import duties with Canada after it became known that technology companies will have to pay a Digital Services Tax of 3 percent, retroactively starting in 2022. Trump called it an “unprecedented tax” that is a “blatant attack” on the US. He wants to hit back in the first week of July with an arbitrary levy that Canada will have to pay in order to do business with the US. In this way, Canada, like the UK and other European countries, wants to generate more income from the profits that companies make in the country.
Previous tariffs, such as on European steel and cars, are still in place. The tariffs, which could raise up to $750 billion a year, go beyond a trade war. They are intended to bring back jobs, increase self-reliance in sectors such as semiconductors and energy, and potentially fund tax cuts for the middle class. Countries that support US interests get better deals, others higher tariffs (10% on everyday goods, 25-60% on high-tech). But this could trigger inflation and market shocks; US consumers pay an extra $625 per person per year.
EU
President Trump has taken to his own social media channel Truth Social to threaten a 50 percent tariff on products from the European Union. The tariffs are set to go into effect on June 1. The EU estimates that the first wave of tariffs on steel and aluminum will hit €28 billion in exports, mainly Tata Steel . The EU has retaliated with 25 percent tariffs on bourbon and Harley-Davidson motorcycles. Trump has threatened 200 percent tariffs on European wines and champagne if the EU does not lift the whisky tariff and criticized high European fines on American tech companies. At a press conference, he said: “The European Union is designed to thwart the United States.” Trump will ease some tariffs on foreign parts in cars made in the United States and prevent tariffs on foreign cars from being added to other tariffs. The European Commission is threatening to impose tariffs on various American goods worth €95 billion. The Commission wants to impose the tariffs at a time when negotiations with the Americans to eliminate import duties have failed. The Commission has drawn up a list of goods on which the EU intends to impose import tariffs. These are agricultural products such as nuts, fruit and olive oil. Airplanes are also on the list, as are cars and car parts, electrical equipment, cameras, jukeboxes and microphones. At the same time as presenting the list, the European Commission also announced a procedure against the US at the World Trade Organisation. According to the EU, the American levies are a gross violation of international trade rules. Trump’s threat comes at a time when the EU and the US are holding talks on trade relations. Trump’s announcement seems to be aimed at sharpening the talks. After a telephone consultation with von der Leyen, President Trump has postponed the planned 50% import duty on European goods by more than a month. The measure, which was supposed to come into effect on 1 June, was suspended until 9 July after a telephone conversation with Trump by Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday 25 May. It would take until 9 July to reach a good agreement between the two trading blocs. Ursula said it was a “good conversation.”
The legal tug-of-war over Trump’s tariffs is entering a new chapter, as an appeals court yesterday lifted a blockade imposed on the tariffs by a federal trade court on Wednesday, May 28. The Trump administration is threatening to go to the Supreme Court if the appeal is not granted. Trump appears to have had enough and is continuing with the tariffs and threats for the time being.
Donald Trump added fuel to the fire and suddenly doubled US import duties on steel and aluminium on May 30. In after-hours trading on Wall Street, shares of steel producer Cleveland-Cliffs rose 26 percent. Trading partners Canada and Australia immediately condemned the tariff increase. The increase in US import duties on steel and aluminium from 25% to 50%, as announced by Donald Trump, applies to China, the EU, and other trading partners, with an exception for the United Kingdom, which will continue to face a lower tariff of 25% despite an earlier trade deal. The tariff increase, which will take effect on 4 June 2025 at 06:01, is an intensification of Trump’s trade war and follows allegations that China has breached an agreement on tariffs and trade restrictions on critical minerals. Canada and Australia immediately condemned the increase, but are also affected by the new tariffs. Shares of steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs rose 26% in after-hours trading on Wall Street, as seen in financial data where the current price of CLF is $7.56 after rising from $7.18 the previous day. See the financial chart above for details. Von der Leyen indicated after the EU summit in late June that the European Commission would continue to consider all countermeasures if a deal with Trump cannot be reached. The Commission President also proposed an alternative World Trade Organization. The EU, together with twelve countries from the Indo-Pacific region, could form the basis of such a deal. The European Union is prepared to conclude a trade deal with the United States that would impose a 10 percent import duty on many of its exports. In return, the EU wants the US to impose lower tariffs on key products such as medicines, alcohol, semiconductors and aircraft. The EU also wants the US to make exceptions to reduce the high import tariffs on cars, car parts, steel and aluminum.
Mexico
Trump threatened Mexico with 25% tariffs on Mexican products because of the “flow of illegal drugs ( fentanyl )” from Mexico. In late February 2025, Mexico extradited 29 drug kingpins, including Rafael Caro Quintero, who is suspected of murdering a DEA employee in 1985.
On February 13, 2025, Trump announced reciprocal import duties on products from 182 countries. He also threatened the EU with tariffs if it stopped buying American oil and gas and wants to pull out of a global agreement for a 15% minimum tax, with punitive measures for 139 participating countries within two months.
United Kingdom
The deal struck yesterday would see US tariffs on key British exports reduced, Reuters reports . For example, the US would impose reduced tariffs on imports of British cars, aluminium and steel. And the UK agreed to lower tariffs on US beef and ethanol.
Earlier this month, the US imposed 50 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum. Britain avoided them. But from July 9, the country could have faced higher tariffs unless a deal was reached to reduce the tariffs.
At the G7 summit in Canada, Trump said the relationship with the United Kingdom is “just fantastic.” The US president said this while waving a document that he said he had just signed. “We signed it and it’s done,” Trump said.
The UK is the first to agree to a deal on lower tariffs from Trump.
US recession
The US economy is facing serious challenges. Since mid-2010, China has sold half a trillion dollars in US Treasuries and bought gold, causing the People’s Bank of China’s reserve volume to fall from $869 billion to $767 billion in one year. In the last quarter of 2023, loan defaults at major banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup rose by $24 billion. The Federal Reserve, which has built up $9 trillion in debt by buying government bonds, saw the end of the Bank Term Funding Program on March 12, 2024, which means that banks can no longer receive support through this channel. This puts further pressure on the financial sector.
The economy already appears to be in recession, judging by negative changes in the labor market and increasing job losses. Consumer credit rose by $3.2 billion in September 2024 and by $19.2 billion in October (against a previous report of $6 billion). Investors fearing a debacle are flocking to Bitcoin and gold.
The budget deficit is $1.9 trillion and is expected to reach around 6.5% of GDP next year – three times higher than in other advanced economies but similar to China’s 4-6%. Elon Musk has warned of a potential US default, but Donald Trump has stuck to plans like buying the Panama Canal and Greenland. The IMF’s Gita Gopinath has urged tax cuts, while the Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell has cut interest rates by 50 basis points, which BlackRock’s Larry Fink called “insane” given the long-term implications. After taking office in January 2025, Trump launched ambitious reforms. On January 22, at 5pm ET, all employees of DEI (diversity, equity, inclusion) programs were to be placed on paid leave, with the possibility of termination, although a judge later blocked this. He offered civil servants a severance package with eight months’ pay to dismantle the “deep state.” More than 9,500 civil servants are losing their jobs, and 75,000 have accepted a package through September 2025, which could yield 5-10% participation and save $100 billion. Among the layoffs are 3,400 Agriculture employees, 2,300 Interior employees, and 1,200-2,000 Energy employees. Probationary employees and 2,000 of the 10,000 USAID employees are also leaving; USAID employees worldwide have been put on paid leave following corruption discoveries by Musk, who wants to “shred” and reduce the size of the organization. Trump is now on a collision course with the Fed and the Supreme Court.
In mid-February, Trump signed some 60 executive orders, largely in accordance with Project 2025, a 900-page conservative policy plan. He wants to raise the debt limit and partially disband USAID, while Musk reorganizes it. Trump also wants control of the Gaza Strip—with Palestinian relocation and renovation—and the Suez Canal. The Pentagon is requiring transgender military personnel to leave within 60 days, and DOGE (led by Musk, albeit with diminished influence after disagreements over Trump’s AI project) halted a $52 million payment to the World Economic Forum. In the United States, the debt burden has ballooned to about 123 percent of gross domestic product. The federal debt exploded on the first day of the new fiscal year, soaring $204 billion to a new record $35.75 trillion, but it gets worse: the Treasury Department also had to withdraw $72 billion from its cash balance, more than $275 billion in the red for just one day. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned the United States that the massive budget deficit is fueling inflation and poses “significant risks” to the global economy. The World Economic Forum (WEF) has also weighed in, with WEF Chairman Børge Brende saying that debt levels like these have not been seen since the Napoleonic Wars. Trump has plans to team up with tech company Palantir to create a national citizen database.
Ukraine deal and sanctions
EU leaders had agreed in principle to extend all existing sanctions packages against Russia at the EU summit in Brussels on June 26. There are 17 packages in total, each to be renewed every six months. However, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico vetoed the extension and blocked the sanctions. As a landlocked country with deep ties to Russian fuels, Slovakia protested, saying it would raise prices and undermine its competitiveness. Hungary, which is in a similar situation, joined the opposition. Fico says that if Slovakia stops importing Russian pipeline gas, it will have to spend more on transit fees to get alternative supplies from western, northern and southern countries that buy LNG and regasify it later. Fico wants guarantees that future transit costs will match Russia’s. Fico also says that the end of cheap Russian gas, combined with potentially higher transit costs, will push up gas prices for households “by 30 to 50 percent.” Therefore, Fico demands “money to compensate Slovak households and businesses, which cannot bear this burden”.
Fico also wants guarantees to protect Slovakia from a massive increase in wholesale gas prices, as happened during the 2022 energy crisis.
Finally, Fico warns that Slovakia can expect a lawsuit from Gazprom, the Russian gas monopoly, worth 16-20 billion euros over the termination of the long-term contract, which runs until 2034. Russian energy contracts are usually governed by clear “take-or-pay” terms, meaning that buyers are obliged to take the agreed supplies or pay damages if they do not.
Trump secured Ukraine’s precious resources and signed a contract with Zelensky on April 30. In the contract, they declared their willingness to open up the vast reserves of key minerals to American investment. The deal, which was supposed to be finalized on February 28, fell through and Zelensky left, deeply offended after Trump and Vance belittled him and put him on the spot. Both countries will now jointly exploit resources, including oil and gas, through a newly established investment fund. The revised deal would not include American security guarantees. However, it was agreed that an audit team in Ukraine would investigate whether US-donated funds were spent wisely. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told American lawmakers during a hearing on June 10, 2025, that there would be “cuts” in aid to Ukraine in the budget for the next fiscal year. He did not specify how big the cuts would be. Also 20,000 anti-aircraft missiles, originally promised to Ukraine to stop Shahed drones, were instead steered towards the Middle East. However, Russian troops on June 27 took control of the town of Shevchenko in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, home to one of the country’s most promising lithium deposits, covering some 40 hectares. Dnipropetrovsk, near Velyka Novosilka, which was overrun by the Russians in January of this year. “After capturing this seemingly inconspicuous village, which is just over 10 kilometres from Velyka Novosilka, Russian troops gained access to one of the most promising lithium deposits in Ukraine,” Le Figaro reported. In addition to lithium, rare metals such as tantalum, niobium, beryllium, rubidium and cesium have also been found in the area.
Meanwhile, the EU is pulling Zelensky not to give up the territories conquered by Russia. EU President Von der Leyen, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and Prime Minister Schoof visited the Ukrainian capital on 24 February, together with nine other leaders, for consultations and to show support. A sixteenth sanctions package against Russia was also approved there. The sanctions include a ban on the import of primary aluminium, the sale of game consoles and the inclusion of 74 ships from the shadow fleet. This new series of sanctions should put a stop to the game controllers that are used to control drones, banks that are used to circumvent sanctions and eight propaganda channels that are used to spread lies, according to Kaja Kallas, EU Foreign Affairs Chief. Hungary did not agree and also stressed that they will not agree to new tens of billions of euros for arms supplies. High-ranking American officials also stayed away and are drawing up their own plan. The UN Security Council has adopted an American resolution on Ukraine. The resolution calls for a quick end to the ‘Russian-Ukrainian conflict’ and urges a ‘lasting peace’ between the two countries. European countries wanted to change parts of the text, but Russia vetoed them. The US, Russia and eight other countries voted in favour of the resolution. Five other countries abstained, including France and the United Kingdom. The pro-Palestinian hacker group Dark Storm Team attempted in vain to shut down X with a ‘massive cyber attack’. Ukraine must tackle corruption, better protect minorities and reduce the influence of oligarchs. An American report points to serious problems: enforced disappearances, torture, poor prison conditions, arbitrary arrests, lack of judicial independence, restrictions on freedom of expression, violence against journalists, censorship, corruption, gender violence and child labour. Despite Western pressure, corruption scandals remain frequent and suspects are rarely punished, sometimes even promoted. Ursula von der Leyen nevertheless wants to speed up the application process to make Ukraine part of the European Union. According to her, Ukraine joining the EU is in its own security interest because of the fight against Russia, which would be a permanent threat to the whole of Europe. She hopes that the first phase of accession negotiations can be completed in 2025. On 6 May 2025, the Commission presented a roadmap to completely cut off the EU from Russian gas by the end of 2027. Von der Leyen urged MEPs that reopening the Russian gas tap would be a “mistake of historic proportions”. The parliament and the member states still have to vote on the Commission’s proposal.On 20 May 2025, the European Union (EU) adopted a new package of sanctions against Russia. The sanctions target, among other things, the Russian shadow fleet, the Russian war industry and companies that help Russia circumvent sanctions. The EU is imposing additional sanctions on another 189 vessels (including 183 oil tankers) that are part of the Russian shadow fleet. This is more than double the number of vessels. These vessels are involved in circumventing the oil price cap or transporting stolen Ukrainian grain. The sanctions will prevent the vessels from accessing European ports and services. This ban now applies to 342 vessels. Since the EU introduced the oil price cap and the sanctions against the shadow fleet, Russian revenues have fallen by €38 billion. Russia’s revenues in March 2025 were 13.7% lower than in March 2023 and 20.3% lower than in March 2022. The EU has added 17 individuals and 58 companies to the sanctions list, including: Companies from other countries, including China and Belarus, that supply key components to the Russian military, such as drones. The EU has also imposed new export restrictions on 31 organizations that help Russia circumvent sanctions. It is also expanding export bans on chemicals and machinery spare parts, cutting more than 20 Russian banks from the SWIFT international payment system, lowering the oil price ceiling, and officially banning the Nord Stream gas pipelines.In addition, export bans on chemicals and spare parts for machinery will be further expanded, more than twenty Russian banks will be disconnected from the SWIFT international payment system, the oil price ceiling will be lowered and the Nord Stream gas pipelines will be officially banned.In addition, export bans on chemicals and spare parts for machinery will be further expanded, more than twenty Russian banks will be disconnected from the SWIFT international payment system, the oil price ceiling will be lowered and the Nord Stream gas pipelines will be officially banned.
Just ahead of a summit of G7 leaders, a new sanctions proposal was floated, aimed at pressuring the Kremlin to accept an unconditional 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, a move Western allies see as a key precondition for serious peace negotiations. If agreed by member states, it would be the 18th sanctions package since February 2022, the largest ever imposed by the EU.
The latest proposal, unveiled on June 10 by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and High Representative Kaja Kallas, expands the blacklist of Russian banks and tankers from the “shadow fleet.” So far, Brussels has targeted more than 350 vessels from the poorly maintained fleet, which has been accused of sabotage and vandalism.
The plan also includes a ban on the underwater Nord Stream pipelines that connect Russia and Germany. The pipelines are currently not operational and Berlin has ruled out resuming gas transports after the end of the war.
The most striking element of the proposed package is a reduction of the price ceiling for Russian oil transported by sea, which was set at the G7 level in December 2022. The ceiling was set at $60 per barrel of crude oil. The Nordic and Baltic countries have long called for a revision to take into account market dynamics.
In theory, the EU could pass new legislation to lower the cap itself in an effort to further squeeze Moscow’s profits. But doing so without the United States’ participation could lead to disunity and weaken the initiative, which is intended to have a global impact.
So far, Donald Trump has refused to impose new sanctions on Russia, even as his tone toward Vladimir Putin has hardened over the slow pace of negotiations and continued attacks on Ukrainian cities. Trump’s stance has driven a wedge into the Western front, with the EU, the UK and Canada pressing ahead with new restrictions while Washington steps back.
There was a laundry list of topics on the agenda, with the overarching motto: damage limitation. There is great division on themes such as trade, Gaza, Ukraine and the current situation in Iran. In addition to the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the EU, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also came. He undoubtedly hoped to meet Trump. The Canadians still have nightmares from the G7 summit of 2018, when Trump withdrew his signature from the final communiqué after his departure and gave host Justin Trudeau a hard time by calling him dishonest, says Van de Roer. ‘That diplomatic nightmare is all the more reason for the Canadians not to meet, negotiate and write long texts for too long.’ The meeting between Trump and President Ursula von der Leyen of the European Commission is eagerly awaited, with a view to the July 9 deadline for the 50 percent trade tariffs for the EU. ‘Europe cannot use that, because it would put the European economy under pressure.
Hungary and Slovakia have agreed to a sanctions package against Russia. They are doing so out of dissatisfaction with a European legislative proposal that would ban Russian gas purchases. Last week, the European Commission proposed to stop importing Russian oil and gas by the end of 2027. EU member states will no longer be allowed to conclude new contracts for Russian oil and gas from January 2026. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico says that Slovakia will not support the sanctions as long as the European Commission does not come up with a solution for Slovakia’s gas and oil imports.
Countries that do not have access to the sea and have long-term contracts for gas delivered via pipelines will be allowed to keep those contracts until the end of 2027. Hungary and Slovakia are against it, as they still depend on Russia for their gas and oil supplies. But if most EU countries are in favor, which is the case, the bill could go ahead.
This does not apply to the eighteenth sanctions package against Russia, which was announced a week earlier. This can only come into effect if all EU countries agree. The new sanctions package states, among other things, that Russian gas may no longer be sold for more than 45 dollars per barrel
The US previously promised Putin what he wants until 2029 (the Donbas and no NATO). Mark Rutte and Ursula von der Leyen reacted frantically now that their investments of billions of euros in weapons and money have not yielded the desired results. Europe is preparing for a security force to prevent Putin from advancing after all. Putin has meanwhile strengthened his position and is still advancing. On March 2, a large number of European leaders – including Prime Minister Schoof – met in London at the invitation of Prime Minister Starmer. Rutte and President Zelensky and NATO allies Canada, Norway and Turkey also attended. Zelensky also visited King Charles the same day. Trump was not present. Britain has signed a 100-year agreement to support Ukraine militarily and financially. This includes providing 3 billion pounds per year until 2031 and supporting Ukraine “for as long as necessary,” and establishing military bases along the Sea of Azov, which is controlled by Russia. Rutte has urged Zelensky to be more humble in the hope of getting the US back on track with the EU. Zelensky has called for no pause in the pressure on Russia after a deadly Russian attack. Zelensky was in Brussels on March 6 for meetings with various leaders and the EU summit. France is also using war language, much to Russia’s displeasure. The Kremlin believes that French President Emmanuel Macron has lost touch with reality with statements about Russia as a threat to all of Europe and a French “nuclear umbrella.” “Every day he makes statements that are completely out of touch with reality and that are at odds with his previous statements,” a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry said. Macron called Russia a threat to Europe in a televised speech on March 5. He said that France would double the size of its armed forces and that he could protect European allies with French nuclear weapons. The European Union’s diplomatic service has proposed that EU countries provide up to 40 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine in 2025.
Donald Trump responded to criticism over his growing rapprochement with Russia over Ukraine by saying the United States should be less worried about Vladimir Putin. “We should spend less time worrying about Putin, and more time worrying about the gangs of migrant rape fighters, drug lords, murderers, and people from mental institutions coming into our country so we don’t end up like Europe!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. After Zelensky failed to apologize and continued to use belligerent language in public, Trump temporarily suspended all military aid, including equipment that was in transit or in storage.
Meanwhile, fear is rampant in the US, fueled by the speed and unpredictability of Trump’s executive orders. Trump’s governing style is all about momentum and chaos. In his first week back in the White House, he’s signed 25 executive orders, ranging from scrapping Biden’s climate protections to rejecting the OECD tax deal. This blitzkrieg approach—a legacy of his first term—is keeping everyone on edge. Businesses and opponents have little time to react before the next wave hits, fueling fear.
The speed with which Chevron, Amazon, and Meta poured $1 million into Trump’s inaugural fund suggests they didn’t wait a second to demonstrate their loyalty. This isn’t a strategic long-term investment, but a knee-jerk reaction to staying out of harm’s way. They recall how Trump attacked Harley-Davidson in 2018 after they moved abroad—boycotts and tax threats followed within days. Despite Kennedy’s vaccine skepticism and Trump’s vague “investigation” of pharmaceuticals, we hear no loud defense of Pfizer or Moderna. Their silence seems to be pure fear: a wrong move could lead to an executive order threatening their FDA status or taxing their profits. They’re betting the storm will blow over—or that Kennedy’s plans will fail in court—rather than defend themselves now. Musk’s $250 million deposit and Bezos’ visit to Mar-a-Lago were bribes to avoid Trump’s whims. They know that with the stroke of a pen he can take away their tax breaks or regulate their platforms.
Member states of the World Health Organization (WHO) have reached an agreement in principle on a pandemic treaty after three years of talks. The delegations will reconvene in Geneva on April 15 to work out the final details and give their approval. The WHO General Assembly must finally approve the treaty in May. The 194 member states have been discussing an agreement for three years that should improve cooperation before and during major disease outbreaks. The United States has withdrawn from the treaty and from the WHO.
President with a criminal record
Donald Trump’s rise to power has been marked by controversy. Despite a criminal record, six criminal cases, two civil lawsuits, and numerous accusations—including making hush-money payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels from party funds, embezzling classified government documents at Mar-a-Lago, his role in the Capitol riot, coercing Vice President Mike Pence, election fraud, conspiracy, property fraud, and defamation after sexual assault—he managed to become president. In May 2023, he was sentenced to pay $5 million in damages to author E. Jean Carroll for sexual assault and defamation. In September 2024, he was tried in a second defamation case, resulting in a fine of $83.3 million. The bail for another case was lowered from $454 million to $175 million. In July 2024, he survived an assassination attempt at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, where security failed and the shooter was killed by the Secret Service. On September 15, 2024, a second attack was foiled near his golf course in West Palm Beach, Florida, where a man was arrested with an AK-47, a scope and a GoPro camera.
Elon Musk played a crucial role in Trump’s campaign, investing $250 million in the campaign coffers and donating $75 million to America PAC, an unlimited spending committee for Trump. Musk raffled off $1 million a day in swing states to signatories to his petitions on free speech and gun control. After Trump’s victory, Musk, despite his ketamine use, was put in charge of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), tasked with making the government more efficient.
On January 20, 2025, Trump took office, the first with a criminal record after an unconditional discharge for hush-money payments to Stormy Daniels – found guilty but not sentenced. He immediately signed executive orders deporting millions of illegal immigrants and pardoning some 1,500 Capitol rioters, including Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio, Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes, Joseph Biggs (age 17) and Zachary Rehl (age 15), allowing the killing of a police officer to go unpunished. He also pardoned Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, who had been serving a life sentence since 2015. The Justice Department was ordered to expand the death penalty for crimes against government officials and serious crimes committed by illegal aliens. During his first term, Trump executed 13 inmates in six months, a record in more than a century.
Trump appointed Kash Patel as FBI director and Daniel Bongino, a conservative commentator and former Secret Service agent, as his deputy. Patel, who previously clashed with the FBI and CIA over classified information surrounding Russian interference in 2016, and Bongino want to dismantle the “deep state.” Patel suggested that the FBI focus only on criminal work, not intelligence. Bongino, a throat cancer survivor, brought experience in the NYPD (1995-1999) and Secret Service (1999-2011).
Trump’s policies reflect expansionism. He wants to “take back” the Panama Canal because of high tolls, renamed the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America, and plans a mission to plant the American flag on Mars. He has sought to make America “the greatest, most powerful, most respected nation again,” sought a deal with Russia to stop the war in Ukraine, and put Cuba back on the terror list, reversing a decision by Biden. Despite his convictions, Trump’s supporters continue to support him.
EUROPE
The total public debt of the EU Member States amounts to around €16 trillion (end-2024), or 88.2% of GDP, and includes the debts of central governments, Länder, municipalities and social security institutions. In addition, the EU has its own debts at supranational level, mainly through the NextGeneration EU (NGEU) recovery plan, which was set up to tackle the economic consequences of the COVID-19 crisis. At the end of September 2024, this EU debt amounted to €547 billion, with an expected increase of €448 billion for current liabilities, including €421 billion in non-repayable grants until 2026.
The NGEU fund, part of the EU budget for 2021-2027 of around €2 trillion, makes €953 billion available (in loans and grants) to combat the worst recession since World War II, particularly in southern European countries such as Italy and Spain. This fund includes 17 reforms and 28 investments aimed at economic resilience and sustainability. In 2022, EU debt at supranational level rose by more than €100 billion to €344.3 billion and to €458.5 billion in 2023, largely due to COVID-19 support measures, requiring a total of €1.5 trillion in state aid.
The European Commission borrows part of these funds on the financial markets, for which member states such as the Netherlands and Belgium provide guarantees. This indirectly increases the financial risks for these countries. In southern Europe, countries are struggling with high government debt, and investors are increasingly demanding higher risk premiums on their bonds, putting pressure on the eurozone. Although EU debt at supranational level is only a fraction of total member state debt, the high debt and budget deficits of some member states, including Belgium (with a government debt of 110% of GDP), remain a concern. The EU has mechanisms such as the European Stability Mechanism to prevent acute crises, but structural reforms remain essential.
The IMF warns in a report that the debt outlook for many countries could be worse than previously thought. In an adverse scenario, the global debt burden could reach 115% of GDP in three years. The fund expects 100% by 2030. France and Italy will probably not be able to reduce their budget deficits to the EU norm until 2029. The high public debts of France, Italy and Spain make the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) very vulnerable. The French public debt has already risen to 3 trillion euros. If Italy and France allow their debts to rise to unsustainable levels and the European Central Bank continues to conduct reckless monetary policy, the currency union will eventually collapse. More than 22 percent of the total EU debt is Italian. Italy’s economy is only about 14 percent of the total in the eurozone and is therefore larger than Italy’s share in the EU. To keep its debts in balance, Italy will need at least 135 billion euros in the next five years. So we are slowly but surely heading for a new euro crisis. Member states with high national debt, such as Greece, Italy and Belgium, will be given more time to reduce their debt. Incidentally, Italy and France have not adhered to the budget rules for years. Both France and Belgium are facing possible credit rating downgrades in 2024, as a result of escalating budget deficits and debts.
In May 2025, the EU foreign ministers officially approved the €150 billion loan that the European Commission wants to take out for defence investments. EU countries that want to jointly produce or purchase defence equipment can apply for a loan from the Commission from 29 May. An agreement had already been reached at ambassadorial level last week. 26 of the 27 member states agreed to this hammer piece. Hungary abstained from voting. The European Union wants to strengthen Ukraine and itself with a defence package of €800 billion. Member states are given budgetary space to increase defence spending by an average of 1.5%, which will yield €650 billion in four years. This expenditure does not count towards the maximum budget deficit of 3% of GDP. EU funds, such as the cohesion fund, may also be used for this purpose. In addition, the EU is borrowing €150 billion on the capital markets, without using the word “eurobonds”. At an EU summit in Brussels, 26 member states (excluding Hungary) voted for additional support for Ukraine, despite opposition from Viktor Orbán. All 27 agreed on European defence reinforcement. The Dutch House of Representatives voted against the loan, but the plan can go ahead without the Netherlands, provided other countries agree. The ECB warns in its Financial Stability Report of a new debt crisis in the Eurozone. Debts amounted to 88.7% of GDP (totalling 15,800 billion euros) in Q1 2024, well above the 60% limit. The combined EU debt rose from 236.7 billion euros in 2021 to 458.5 billion in 2023, partly due to the corona recovery fund. Defence expenditure, which falls outside budget deficits, exacerbates this. The European Court of Auditors speaks of a prelude to an unprecedented financial crisis. The European Investment Bank (EIB) is already supporting the defense industry with billions and has also given 2.7 billion euros to Belgian projects since 2021, including DPG Media. This media group, active in Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark, reaches 15 million users, but the investment raises questions about press freedom.
In total, the EU now needs an additional 66 billion euros, in addition to the additional loan (50 billion euros) for Ukraine (NextGenerationEU (NGEU). The Netherlands also provided a guarantee for these loans. The European Commission has allocated 500 million euros from a defense fund to European arms manufacturers to quickly increase arms production for Ukraine. In 2024, Ukraine must actually repay the IMF 2.19 billion SDRs for previously provided loans worth 2.9 billion dollars, but that money is not there. In March and September 2024, Ukraine must transfer 705.5 million dollars each time to the IMF, which is therefore being financed with new IMF funds. In the meantime, the country needs at least 42 billion dollars in international aid to support the 2024 budget. The EU’s SURE fund recently provided 100 billion in loans to the southern member states. 27.4 billion of this went to support for short-time working in Italy. Spain received 21.3 billion, Poland 11.2 billion, Belgium 7.8 billion, Romania 4 billion, Greece 2.7 billion, Czech Republic 2 billion, Slovenia 1.1 billion, Croatia 1 billion, Slovakia 631 million, Lithuania 602 million, Bulgaria 511 million, Cyprus 479 million euros, Malta 244 million and Latvia 192 million euros. The Netherlands did not use the cheap loan.
European Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen, who sees the financial problems getting worse, already asked for advice last year from the former head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi, who then indicated that the EU needs hundreds of billions of euros extra in investments every year. He said: “It is high time that European economic policy is drastically overhauled. The survival of the European Union is at stake, this is an existential challenge.” The European economy is lagging behind the American and Chinese economies. The growth of disposable income in the United States has been almost twice as high as in Europe since the beginning of this century. According to Draghi, all three factors that made Europe’s economic growth possible are doing badly: the flourishing of international trade, cheap energy from Russia and the previously self-evident American defense of Europe. All these factors are suddenly uncertain or have even disappeared altogether. And according to him, major changes are needed in all these areas within the EU. Meanwhile, industrial activity in the eurozone has continued to contract due to the declining performance of the German automotive industry and a failed energy transition, and this is also affecting suppliers that supply products to this sector, such as plastics and metalworking companies.
Ten countries, including Belgium, France and Italy, exceed the 3% deficit threshold. The average deficit in the Eurozone rose from 3.6% to 4.1%, in the EU from 3.5% to 4%. The European Commission wants to place seven countries under financial supervision. In France, the Barnier government fell in early December 2024 after a vote of no confidence, due to a budget deficit of 5.5% (150 billion euros) in 2023. Barnier’s plan for 60 billion euros in cuts and tax increases failed. France, now without a full-fledged government, wants to raise 11.5 billion euros with government bonds, including 2.5 billion inflation-linked. The national debt is 3,000 billion euros (112% GDP), and the credit rating (Fitch AA-) is in danger of falling. French central bank CEO François Villeroy de Galhau has been warning about the weak government finances for some time. A dinner with King Charles cost almost 0.5 million euros, which left a hole of 8 million in the presidential budget. Together with Germany’s stagnation, this forms a sputtering Franco-German engine, which is destabilizing Europe politically and economically.
Belgium has a worrying public debt, around 110% of GDP in 2025, which is one of the highest ratios in the EU. The budget deficit is estimated at around 4.6% of GDP. In 2024, Belgium was already under increased surveillance by the EU due to its high debt burden and budget deficit. Other EU countries such as France and Italy have similar problems. There is talk of a possible “Greek scenario” if no measures are taken
In 2024, 11,549 companies were declared bankrupt in Belgium. An increase of 8% compared to 2023 and the third highest number ever (after 2013 and 2018). This led to a record loss of 27,187 jobs. The construction, transport and hospitality sectors were particularly hard hit. The high debt burden and budget deficit make Belgium vulnerable, especially if interest payments rise or economic growth stagnates. Allianz Trade predicts a 5% drop in the number of bankruptcies in Belgium in 2025.
Countries like Greece (during the debt crisis) had much more serious problems, with debts above 180% of GDP and no access to capital markets. Italy with debts around 140% of GDP and France also have high debts. Belgium now has to submit a plan to reduce its budget deficit, which will likely lead to austerity and reforms. This could mean painful measures, such as public sector cuts or tax increases. The government has introduced moratoria on bankruptcies in the past (e.g. during COVID-19) to protect companies. Similar measures or support measures for affected sectors (such as construction and transport) could be considered.
The Netherlands was once again one of the largest net contributors to the EU in 2023. In 2023, more than 3 billion euros more was paid to the EU than was received
In Germany, the EU’s leading economy, there is a budget deficit of 17 billion euros on a total budget of 481 billion euros. There is a severe drop in investor confidence and interest in German government bonds, which is exacerbating the situation. The German economy has fallen back into contraction territory, dragged along by a steep and dramatic drop in industrial output. The German economy shrank for the second year in a row in 2024 by 0.2 percent compared to . The Bavarian agricultural conglomerate BayWa, in deep financial trouble, needed a 547 million euro bailout from its major shareholders and financiers such as the Bayerische Raiffeisen Beteiligung Aktiengesellschaft to avoid bankruptcy. The conglomerate is burdened with billions in debt and is extremely important for farmers and the food supply, especially in southern Germany. The bailout consists of several components, the largest part of which consists of loans totaling almost 400 million euros. In addition, Baywa does not have to repay debts temporarily based on a standstill agreement with the banks. A total of 547 million euros in liquidity relief. The German industrial sector is meanwhile losing market share worldwide to Chinese competitors, especially in the production of cars and machines. This is a structural problem and is also affecting the stock markets. Germany has to keep companies such as Northvolt, Condor and TSMC and now also the ailing Volkswagen and Northvolt afloat with state aid. Rheinmetall has meanwhile received the largest order in the company’s history from Germany for the delivery of 155mm artillery ammunition to the German Bundeswehr. The German steel industry is in a serious crisis, with a low point in the demand for steel. If the negative circumstances persist, possible bankruptcies and rounds of layoffs could affect not only the 100,000 employees in the sector, but also half a million people who are indirectly dependent on the steel industry. The recovery that is expected in 2025 is minimal. In Germany, the number of bankruptcies in various sectors is increasing. Companies in the automotive, furniture, bicycle and fashion industries are facing increasing financial problems. Germany needs around 400 billion euros in investments for its aging infrastructure, such as roads, railways and also the energy grid. Between 160,000 and 200,000 demonstrators protested against the cooperation between the center-right CDU party and the far-right AfD. CDU party leader Friedrich Merz sent proposals to parliament for stricter migration rules, which were supported by the far-right party that won more than 20% of the vote in the German elections of February 23, 2025. Germany is likely to fall into recession for the third year in a row this year due to the US import duties.
German industry has lost more than 100,000 jobs in the past year due to the economic downturn. The important automotive sector has been hit hardest: around 45,400 jobs have disappeared in that sector alone. At the end of the first quarter of this year, 5.46 million people were employed in German industry. That is 1.8 percent less than a year earlier and amounts to a loss of 101,000 jobs. Industrial companies are under great pressure in Germany. Aggressive competitors, for example from China, are driving down prices, important sales markets are weakening, demand in Europe is stagnating at a low level and there is great uncertainty surrounding the entire American market.
Meanwhile, Italy is under pressure to place an order worth around 20 billion euros for 350 Lynx armoured vehicles and over 200 Panther tanks, to be delivered over a period of 15 years. In southern Italy, 4.5 percent of the population has to survive on less than 250 euros per month. The national debts in Italy and Greece are so high that the EU finance ministers are desperately looking for tricks and the hundreds of billions of euros in future green investments no longer count as national debt. A separate support fund of 5 billion euros was set up in Italy to finance bank rescue operations. The Italian state recently had to inject 20 billion euros into the banks to save the sector. Italian banks already had around 360 billion euros in bad loans and due to the stock market falls as a result of Brexit, the banks were faced with losses of more than 20 percent. In Italy, large-scale cuts to social programs are planned due to a huge budget deficit that has reached 7.2% of GDP. French banks have some 300 billion euros outstanding in Italy. Five years after the 5.4 billion euros in aid to save Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the Italian government had to inject another 1.6 billion euros into the bank. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni wants to spend an additional 24 billion euros to stimulate the economy. On top of that comes an additional 13 billion in interest payments.
Finland is cutting social spending after it emerged that the national debt had grown to record levels. Mass layoffs of civil servants are expected across the country by 2025 .
Greece still takes the crown. It is still the country with the largest debt in relative terms, which is expected to amount to around 152.30 percent of GDP by the end of 2024.
Ukraine had to reach an agreement with its creditors on debt restructuring and avoid default. For two years, creditors have agreed to suspend debt payments. Ukraine proposed a deal that would reduce the debt by 60% of its current value, but creditors found 22% more reasonable. The default was eventually avoided by reaching a preliminary agreement with bondholders. The IMF is interested in Ukraine canceling its debt. The amounts provided by allies are impressive, but they come in the form of weapons and targeted funds, not cash. The EU plans to offer slightly more, but still only $38 billion over three years. According to the IMF, the country will barely be able to make ends meet if Ukraine’s creditors reject the radical restructuring proposal. Bondholders, on the other hand, are skeptical about the fund’s confidence, especially given that its analysis is months out of date.
Global debt burden rose by about $1.3 trillion to $315 trillion in the first quarter of 2024
With the EU’s coffers empty, interest and profits from frozen Russian assets are now being used to support Ukraine . The European Parliament agreed to lend 35 billion euros of the interest to Ukraine. Ukraine can decide for itself what the money is spent on. Support in the European Parliament is broad. MEPs from the centre-right EPP, the Social Democrats, the liberal Renew, the Greens and the right-wing conservative ECR were in favour of making the billions available quickly. In response , the Moscow Stock Exchange suspended trading in dollars and euros until further notice on 13 June . The US and the EU do not yet dare to touch the assets themselves after threats from Russia that they will also take financial measures. In 2024, Ukraine had to pay more than a quarter of a trillion dollars as part of the repayment and redemption of its national debt. In the first quarter of this year, the total debt increased by more than 10 billion dollars. It is known that Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt amounted to approximately $151.1 billion as of March 31, 2024.
According to the latest reports, Brazil ’s national public debt stood at $1,558.7 billion in July 2024. The country’s nominal GDP stood at $491 billion in March 2023. China is also doing badly. China’s continuously rising public debt stands at around 13.9 trillion euros. Steel production in China fell by more than 10 percent in August compared to a year earlier, as the sector there too is struggling with low prices and a sharp drop in demand. This is the lowest production level for August since 2017. Industrial production growth there fell to its lowest level in five months. And house prices fell at the fastest rate in nine years as they did last month. China is taking measures and will gradually raise the retirement age for men to 63 from next year to 58 for women. The Russian Federation’s external debt as of September 30, 2024 stood at around $306 billion.
EU membership
In March 2023, a new banking crisis broke out. In the US, several banks collapsed, and the survivors paid 23 billion euros via the FDIC to cover the damage. In Switzerland, Credit Suisse went bankrupt after a 60% drop in share price and was acquired by UBS, leaving it with a balance sheet of $1.6 trillion – almost twice the size of the Swiss economy.
The 2023 stress test showed that banks such as Monte dei Paschi, Raiffeisen, Unicredit, Barclays, RBS, Allied Irish Banks and Société Générale (where 1,600 jobs are cut) are vulnerable. Unicredit is laying off 10,000 of its 86,000 employees.
Brexit
The economic fallout from Brexit is significant for both the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. In the referendum of 23 June 2016, a majority of Britons voted to leave the European Union — prompted by concerns about immigration and the euro crisis. The exit was officially launched on 29 March 2017 and was not completed until 31 January 2020. The impact was felt immediately: according to the S&P Global Broad Market Index, around 2.08 trillion dollars in stock market value disappeared worldwide. For the Netherlands, the British exit was a financial setback. Dutch exports to the UK still amount to around 52 billion euros per year, but the consequences were greater at budgetary level. The UK contributed more than 11 billion euros annually to the EU budget. Since Brexit, the EU budget has fallen by 15%, meaning that the Netherlands has to make a considerably higher contribution.
That rose from €8 billion in 2020 to €10 billion in 2022 and could reach €13 billion a year by 2027 — a 62.5% increase. Meanwhile, the UK itself is grappling with its worst economic crisis in 70 years, with government debt approaching 100% of gross domestic product. The newly elected Labour government, which took office on 4 July 2024, faces major challenges, including a prison crisis. Some 5,000 prisoners have been released early since September 2024 after serving just 40% of their sentences. The economic tensions are visible on financial markets, with the pound under pressure and yields on 10-year UK government bonds reaching their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Nevertheless, the UK continues to invest heavily.
For example, the Ministry of Defence recently signed a £9bn contract with Rolls-Royce Submarines to develop nuclear reactors and build four new Dreadnought submarines. The European Union and the UK have agreed new agreements on defence, fisheries and trade in May 2025. On 19 May, they concluded their biggest deal since Brexit at a summit in London.
ECB
The European Central Bank (ECB) is cutting interest rates again. The interest rate is going from 2.25 to 2 percent, the lowest point in two years. With the interest rate cut, the ECB hopes to boost the European economy and give the war industry a boost. It should also ease the pain of the American trade tariffs and ensure that China dumps products that it used to sell to the US cheaply on the European market. In 2023, the ECB very quickly raised interest rates to a record 4 percent. That was supposed to slow down sky-high inflation. The idea is that by making borrowing more expensive, money is spent less quickly. By lowering interest rates now, the ECB wants to encourage companies, people and governments to spend money again.
Average European inflation has now fallen below the target level of 2 percent, while inflation in the Netherlands is 3.3 percent even in a reduced version. The lowered interest rate is bad news for the Netherlands.
The European Central Bank (ECB) suffered a record loss of almost 8 billion euros in 2024. The bank mainly lost considerably more money on interest charges. In 2023, a loss of 1.27 billion euros was also suffered. De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) will not publish its annual report for 2024 until later. This will probably also include deep red figures. Due to the interest rate increases, the soaring government debts are increasingly putting pressure on the budgets of EU member states. The interest rate for southern European countries is now approximately twice as high as that of the Netherlands) and southern European countries will therefore soon no longer be able to borrow additional money.
The ECB has therefore decided to buy up loans again and not to wait too long with interest rate cuts. The most important interest rate will also go back to 2.75 percent. In the past year, the interest rate at which banks can deposit money with the ECB was 4 percent higher than ever. The European Central Bank ( ECB ) has already bought 5 trillion euros in debt paper.
Among other things, government bonds and corporate debt were bought, including short-term debt from non-financial companies. European banks, and especially Deutsche Bank, are not doing too well and together they have built up 695 billion in (teltro) debt with the ECB that actually had to be repaid in 2020, but which is constantly being refinanced with new taltros. The ECB now owns more than 40 percent of the total government debt of the eurozone and has to buy up debt again because of the looming deficits.
The main finding in a survey of European Central Bank staff by trade union Ipso was that President Lagarde, according to just over half of the 1,089 respondents, is not fit to be a leader because her performance is mediocre to very mediocre.
In December 2016, Lagarde, then France’s finance minister, was found guilty of negligence by the Cour de Justice de la République, a special court for government officials. The case involved her role in approving a €404 million arbitration award to businessman Bernard Tapie in 2008, money that came from the French state. The court found that she was negligent for failing to intervene when it became clear that the arbitration was fraudulent and unnecessary. But here’s the remarkable thing: she faced no punishment – no jail time, no fine, no community service, nothing.
Her criminal record remained clean, and she was allowed to continue as director of the IMF. In 2019, she even became president of the European Central Bank (ECB), one of the most powerful financial positions in the world. Her case was treated as a management error, not as deliberate fraud or personal gain. The court acknowledged that she acted “carelessly,” but found no malice.
Second, she had political support: France and other EU leaders did not want to see her fall, and her international reputation as a technocrat helped. Third, her status played a role – as a high-ranking official, she was not seen as a risk to society, and her conviction was not registered as a standard criminal record that would block a Certificate of Good Conduct (VOG).
At the end of 2012, the European Commission decided to grant the ECB new powers for banking supervision and the establishment of a banking union. In 2013, the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) entered into force and on 4 November 2014, the ECB took over all supervisory tasks in full. The SRM Regulation entered into force on 1 January 2016, requiring the ECB to use an SRB to signal when a bank must be dissolved. In exceptional circumstances, the additional resolution fund must be used for this purpose. To this end, the banks of the Member States must raise 1 percent of the covered deposits of the participating banks (approximately 55-60 billion euros) over a period of ten years.
To this end, an Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) was concluded, which regulates the payment of contributions to the Resolution Fund (SRF) and the gradual risk sharing of the Member States. The Austrian Heta Asset Resolution (Hypo Alpe Adria Bank) was the first bank with the dubious honour of collapsing under the SRM rules (European Recovery and Resolution Directive, (BRRD) with a deficit of 8 billion euros. On the instructions of the supervisor, 54% of the bank’s debts were written off and the repayment term for the remaining debt was extended until the end of December 2023.
The ECB initially limited itself to buying government bonds and bonds from supranational institutions such as the EU and the EU emergency funds, but government institutions have been added to this. The ECB also bought 597 million euros in packaged Dutch mortgage loans from ING and the ailing Delta Lloyd that would otherwise have gone under long ago. Deficits are secretly eliminated by central banks by trading in their own bonds. In this way, banks in France, Italy and Ireland operate with a balance sheet that is actually a multiple of their equity (monetary easing) and with money that is not actually there.
As a backstop, the ESM could also provide up to 68 billion euros in loans if necessary from 2022. The ESM, currently the permanent emergency fund for eurozone countries in financial trouble, was actually supposed to become the new safety net for problem banks in the eurozone, but in order to meet urgent defence needs, the EU wants to use the available 422 billion euros to finance military investments.
EIB
The European Investment Bank (EIB) has lent out 2.6 billion euros in the Netherlands. At the same time, the European Investment Fund (EIF), part of the EIB Group, provided 270 million euros in risk capital to small and medium-sized enterprises. In total, the EIB provided 335 billion euros in loans over the past three years to keep things going. 20 billion more was used than planned. The ECB is now providing an additional 500 billion euros for this, bringing the total size of the purchase programme to 1,850 billion euros. A total of 8.6 billion euros is available to finance the defence industry. Two billion euros of this has already been invested.
QE (Quantative Easing)
Since March 2015, the European Central Bank (ECB) has purchased around €2.6 trillion in bonds and loans through its Quantitative Easing (QE) programme to stabilise banks, stimulate lending and achieve an inflation target of 2%. The programme started with purchases of €80 billion per month, reduced to €30 billion in January 2018 and €15 billion in December 2018, and was temporarily halted in January 2019. In June 2020, QE was expanded by €600 billion, on top of €750 billion in coronavirus support, increasing the ECB’s balance sheet to around €5 trillion by the end of 2024. Redemptions are being reinvested in new bonds, and national central banks, such as De Nederlandsche Bank, took over risky bonds to support the financial system.
The ECB’s policy has had mixed success. Inflation rose from 2.6% in 2021 to 8.4% in 2022, with peaks above 10% in October-November 2022, driven by energy prices and geopolitical tensions. In May 2023, inflation fell to 6.1%, and in 2025 it is expected to hover around 2.5-3% in the euro area, although this varies across countries.
The Netherlands reported official inflation of 3.2% in 2023, but due to adjusted calculation methods, actual inflation was closer to 6.5%. The ECB raised the deposit rate to 2% in December 2022, 3.25% in May 2023, 3.75% in July 2023, and a record 4% in September 2023. In 2024, the ECB started to gradually lower rates (around 3.25% in June 2025) to support growth, but high interest payments remain a risk.
The EU economy shrank by 6.4% in 2020 due to the corona crisis, and the consolidated government debt of eurozone countries rose to 97.9% of GDP. At the end of 2024, the total EU government debt will amount to around 16 trillion euros (88.2% of GDP), with southern European countries such as Greece (160% of GDP), Italy (140%), Portugal (110%), and Spain (105%) at the top. Belgium’s debt is around 110% of GDP, which makes the country vulnerable. Southern Europe needs additional support, with debts of up to 144% of GDP in some cases, and investors are demanding higher risk premiums, threatening the stability of the eurozone.
The ECB’s bailout and low interest rates have hurt savers and pension funds, while EU budget rules (maximum 3% budget deficit, 60% government debt) are often not adhered to. Mechanisms such as the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), and the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme attempt to contain crises in southern Europe.
However, structural problems such as high debt, budget deficits, and deflation risks remain. The euro fell 6% against the dollar in 2022, but has since recovered slightly.
Globally, central banks, mainly in China, Poland, and Russia, bought 651 tonnes of gold in 2018 (+75%) and 374 tonnes (around €14.2 billion) in the first half of 2019 to diversify reserves. China’s debt grew to 300% of the economy, with €1.1 trillion in bad loans, posing risks for banks and markets. In Europe, countries such as Iceland withdrew their EU candidacy, and Denmark is resisting additional EU regulations, complicating political cohesion.
The Digital Euro / CDBC
On 28 June 2023, the European Commission published a legislative proposal for the digital euro. The ECB is working on a draft, with a preference for an account-based version (log-in required) over a privacy-friendly cash-like version. In October 2023, the ECB decided on the preparatory phase, which will last around two years and include tests and pilots. Only after that, around 2026, will a final decision on issuance follow. The digital euro will be on the balance sheet of the Eurosystem, which is liable for mistakes and wants full control. Everyone in the eurozone should be able to pay with it via free accounts at commercial banks. Retailers (except small ones) will have to accept it as legal tender, possibly with a fee. There will be no interest on the balance.
The EU is investigating an e-wallet (via app or bank card) for payments in shops, webshops and among private individuals, also offline in case of malfunctions or cyber attacks. Privacy is guaranteed by having transactions run via commercial banks, not directly via the ECB. The latter is losing its grip on digital payment transactions due to the rise of crypto coins and foreign digital currencies such as China’s e-yuan. The European Parliament, member states and ECB still have to agree; introduction is not expected before 2026-2028. Cash will remain available, and the EC wants to oblige retailers to accept cash and allow withdrawals. The Netherlands demands privacy, no programmability and added value.
The euro, the currency of 20 EU countries (since Croatia joined in 2023) and 340 million people, is under pressure due to economic differences. A digital euro must reduce transaction costs, broaden financial access and be safe, Queen Máxima said in November 2022 at an EC-ECB conference in Brussels. As a UN advocate (UNSGSA), she also spoke about digital money at the IMF in October 2022. With the digital euro, the ECB wants to compete with bank money and maintain its grip on the currency, against threats such as Facebook’s Libra (now defunct) and the e-yuan. Since 2021, residents of Spain have not been allowed to pay more than €1,000 in cash at shops, restaurants, hotels, etc. The limit is higher for tourists, but it stops at 10,000 euros.
The ECB aims for an introduction around 2026, whereby Europeans can open an account with the ECB, in addition to bank deposits. This should strengthen the euro’s international position. In 1999, the Netherlands gave up control over its currency to the ECB. The SP wants less dependence on commercial banks, which partly caused the credit crisis. In 2014, Minister Dijsselbloem acknowledged emergency scenarios for a euro collapse, which were confidentially shared with the House of Representatives in 2023 after questions from Omtzigt and Eppink.
Morgan Stanley has been exploring crypto options such as Bitcoin for clients and E-Trade since 2021, but this has not yet been implemented (as of 2025). The EU is also planning a digital driver’s license. On March 25, 2025, the European Parliament and member states reached an agreement: this must be in force in all countries by 2030 at the latest, valid for 15 years, accessible via smartphone and recognized in the EU. Implementation is given until 2030, with a paper option. Details on implementation and databases are still missing.
By Euro
25 years ago, the European Union was established at a European summit with the Maastricht Treaty and the euro was invented. Helmut Kohl and François Mitterrand were the driving force behind the project. The euro had to be created for political reasons. The anniversary was celebrated in Brussels with the delivery of a brand new headquarters, built for 321 million euros. (more than 80 million more than budgeted). CDA luminary and now 82-year-old Bert de Vries states almost thirty years later that he regrets not having opposed the conversion of the guilder into the euro and blames himself for it. According to him, it was one of the most radical decisions they took during that cabinet period, with very serious consequences. We agreed to it too easily, he states in his book “Derailed Capitalism”, which he worked on for seven years.
However, it is virtually impossible to reverse this, although the United Kingdom eventually succeeded. is used by around 350 million people in 20 European Union countries. To future-proof the euro, the ECB is preparing for a digital euro. Andrzej Domański, the finance minister in Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government, said Poland’s entry into the eurozone, which consists of 20 EU countries, was not justified at this time. He stressed his belief that retaining its national currency, the złoty, had enabled Poland to navigate challenges such as the global financial crisis without falling into recession.
Russia and Ukraine
On March 27, 2025, 30 EU countries, plus Turkey, Australia and Canada, will meet in Paris for a summit of the “coalition of the willing,” led by French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The goal is to finalize security guarantees for Ukraine, including a “deterrent force.” Following a ceasefire, coalition forces would be deployed to Ukrainian cities and strategic locations, Macron said after talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Ukrainian military will guard the front line, but the troops can intervene in the event of Russian violations.
Russian oligarchs Mikhail Fridman (59) and Pyotr Aven won a case at the EU General Court, which overturned sanctions against them. Meanwhile, Russia supplied 15% of gas and LNG to the EU, the UK and some Balkan countries in 2024, compared to 14% of LNG from the US – the lowest since August 2022. This is due to increased Russian LNG shipments after a US export disruption and extra gas via Turkey for maintenance in June. The EU is preparing its first sanctions on Russian LNG trade, including a ban on transshipment and measures against Russia’s shadow fleet in Zealand. On 24 June 2024, the 14th sanctions package against Moscow was adopted to hit its war industry and revenues.
Russia still supplies gas to Austria, Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic via Ukraine. The EU is considering a new contract with Gazprom for gas transit, despite sanctions. The current deal with Naftogaz expires at the end of 2024. Failure to renew it will cost Russia $6.5 billion annually and Ukraine $800 million in transit duties, and threaten 5% of Europe’s gas supply, mainly for Central and Eastern Europe. Before the war, Russia accounted for 40% of EU gas imports. Now it sells more oil to India and China, and circumvents sanctions via Turkey and China. Rotterdam imported 1.7 billion cubic meters of Russian gas in 2023, compared to 1 billion in 2022. In practical terms, Europe is still very dependent on Russian gas imports. For example, in February 2025, 1.3 billion euros worth of Russian fossil fuels were imported. This not only concerns gas, but also LNG, liquefied gas.
Energy transition
With the energy transition for the EU, the European Commission seems to have overplayed its hand. In 2035, the sale of new petrol and diesel cars must be completely banned, but the car factories are far from ready for this due to the low demand for electric cars. The electricity networks are also insufficiently prepared to handle the transition. The switch from fossil to electric is hitting the car industry hard and the Volkswagen group is already in danger of having to close factories and must be rescued with state aid because all liquid assets have disappeared to fines for the diesel fraud and investments in the hopeless Northvolt.
The situation at Volkswagen is alarming, according to Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume, and major changes are needed to ensure the German car manufacturer’s survival. Volkswagen Group has around 300,000 employees in Germany. This also includes brands such as Audi, Skoda and SEAT. Around 120,000 employees work for the Volkswagen brand in Germany. Stellantis and Aston Martin are also issuing profit warnings. Car sales continue to decline. In August 2024, 44 percent fewer electric cars were sold across Europe. Batteries have become strategically important for the EU. In order to achieve climate targets, the EU has made 8 billion euros in aid available to support the battery industry.
The European Investment Bank (EIB) has pledged a record €2.7 billion in new financing for climate and environmental sustainability projects. These are projects that focus on tackling the impacts of climate change. Less than 10% of global battery production takes place in Europe, with the majority of that production in the hands of non-European companies. Globally, 76% of production takes place in China. A particular constraint for the EU battery industry is its huge dependence on imports of raw materials from non-EU countries with which the EU has not concluded the necessary trade agreements.
This poses risks for Europe’s strategic autonomy, not to mention the social and environmental conditions under which these raw materials are extracted. Germany sees the storm coming and made a deal with Serbia for a lithium mine. The US has offered Zelensky to take over 50% of Ukraine’s crucial minerals, but he has so far rejected this. The EU wants to limit Chinese competition with import duties on electric vehicles (EVs).
On October 29, 2024, the European Commission set definitive tariffs, effective November 1, 2024, ranging from 8% to 35% for five years. This followed an investigation into Chinese state aid, which was allowing EVs to be sold below cost. From July 4, 2024, provisional tariffs (17.4% to 37.6%) came into effect, lasting until November 1, and varying by manufacturer (e.g. BYD, Geely, SAIC). This followed a US plan to increase tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100%. China responded furiously, selling $53.3 billion of US Treasuries in Q1 2024 and moving production to EU countries.
CO2 levies
From 2027, fuel suppliers will have to purchase CO2 rights for their emissions via the new European ETS-2 system, which will generate additional revenue for governments for sustainable mobility. The levy will probably be passed on at the pump, with an additional 11-13 cents per litre, good for 1-1.5 billion euros annually from road transport. ANWB, BOVAG, Natuur & Milieu and RAI Vereniging warn that there is no plan to earmark this money for sustainability; there is a risk that it will only fill budget gaps. ETS-2 expands the existing emissions trading system to small industry, buildings and road transport. Suppliers will report emissions from 2025 and purchase rights in 2027, for which they must apply for permits this year.
Tesla stands to make over $1 billion in 2025 by selling emissions credits to automakers that fail to meet stricter EU standards. Tesla is pooling its EV fleet with companies including Toyota, Stellantis and Ford to lower their average emissions and avoid fines. Another pool is forming around Polestar, with Volvo and Mercedes. Governments can use this revenue to subsidize EVs or charging infrastructure. Hundreds of Americans protested Musk’s political actions, such as this deal, at Tesla dealerships. Nine people were arrested at a protest near New York. Similar “Tesla Takedown” demonstrations have taken place in Jacksonville, Florida, Tucson, Arizona and other cities.
Farmers
Europe Day
Since 1985, EU countries have celebrated Europe Day on 9 May, in honour of Robert Schuman’s 1950 declaration for the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), founded in 1951 by six countries, the foundation of the EU. It is an official holiday in Kosovo and Luxembourg. Due to Syrian refugee flows from Lebanon to Cyprus, Ursula von der Leyen pledged 1 billion euros to Lebanon to curb migration. The EU has set aside 2.12 billion euros for Syrian refugee aid until 2026. Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic are asking for additional EU money for Ukrainian refugees; the Netherlands is giving 14 million euros to Lebanon.
Hungary took over the EU presidency on 1 July 2024. Viktor Orbán, who praised Wilders’ strict asylum policy, launched the “Patriots for Europe” in Vienna with Fidesz, ANO (Czech Republic), FPÖ (Austria), Vlaams Belang, Chega (Portugal), Vox (Spain) and PVV. This radical right faction wants sovereignty, anti-migration and Green Deal revision, and possibly peace in Ukraine. It could become the third EU faction with Denmark, Italy and France. Hungary, dependent on Russian oil (70%), threatens to sue Ukraine with Slovakia over oil delivery controls. Orbán openly supports Trump and after Zelensky (2 July) visited Putin, China and Trump (Florida) for “peace talks”, without an EU mandate. Von der Leyen warned of appeasement; Trump called Zelensky on 19 July about peace.
The far-right “Europe of Sovereign Nations” (ESN) faction, led by AfD (14 out of 28 seats), is the smallest in the European Parliament. AfD won in Thuringia (32.8%) and boycotted Zelensky’s Bundestag speech. In Romania, pro-Russian Calin Georgescu won the first round of elections in November 2024, but it was annulled due to foreign interference. He has been charged and disqualified by the electoral commission; his supporters are protesting in Bucharest against corruption and Prime Minister Ciolacu. NATO is building a base on the Romanian-Ukraine border, which Georgescu opposes.
VN
On 22 and 23 September, 193 countries gathered at the UN headquarters in New York to make agreements for a better and safer world. At the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), countries consulted with each other and made decisions together, also known as resolutions. Each country has one vote in the resolutions. The Kingdom of the Netherlands is a member of the United Nations (UN) as a whole. That is why the Netherlands, Aruba, Curaçao and Sint Maarten went together on behalf of the Kingdom to this 79th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), which was organised on the initiative of UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
At the UNGA, the biggest problems of today were discussed, such as conflicts and crises. During the “ Summit of the Future ” , the countries look further into the future and discuss sustainable development, climate change, nuclear technology, peace and security and technology. At the end of the Summit , the results are combined in a final declaration, the Pact for the Future and two annexes: Global Digital Compact : on responsible use of digital technologies and a safe and inclusive internet. And Declaration on Future Generations : that the interests of future generations are taken into account in decisions made today. The aim of this meeting was to confirm the commitments made to the 17 Sustainable Development Goals ( SDGs ) and the Charter of the United Nations and to improve cooperation.
The summit resulted in a negotiated “Pact for the Future,” an action-oriented document aimed at strengthening global cooperation and adapting effectively to current challenges for the benefit of all and future generations. The Pact is the most comprehensive international agreement in many years, covering entirely new areas and issues that have remained unaddressed for decades. The Pact’s main purpose is to ensure that international institutions can perform in a world that has changed dramatically since they were founded.
Overall, the Pact agreement is a strong statement of countries’ commitment to the United Nations, the international system, and international law. The Pact is not legally binding and covers a wide range of issues, including peace and security, sustainable development, climate change, digital cooperation, human rights, gender, youth and future generations, and the transformation of global governance.
WITH THEM
Marc Rutte Rutte is already the fourth Dutchman to lead NATO. Dirk Stikker, Joseph Luns and Jaap de Hoop Scheffer previously did the same. 183.4 million euros were earmarked for the NATO summit in The Hague. An amount of 95 million euros was previously mentioned. Four ministries are providing extra money for the summit. Justice and Security is contributing 81.7 million euros, the Interior 53 million, Defence 42.6 million and Infrastructure and Water Management 6.1 million. It is the first time for Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State under Trump.
NATO, founded in 1949 by twelve countries including the US, UK, France and the Netherlands, protected against the Soviet threat. Trump wants NATO countries to increase defense spending from 2% to 5% of GDP. The Hague summit, with 45 heads of state, 45 foreign and 45 defense ministers and 6,000 delegates, requires 27,000 Dutch police officers for 46,000 services – the largest police operation ever. National commander Willem Woelders leads the security, including transport from Schiphol to The Hague. US Defense Minister Hegseth emphasizes that America will remain in NATO if Europe and Canada cooperate.
Argentina is applying for NATO membership under President Milei to strengthen Western ties. Georgia, an aspiring member since 2008, was granted EU candidate status in 2023, but a new law on “foreign agents” threatens that position, despite EU criticism. Romania forced Klaus Iohannis to withdraw his candidacy for NATO leader; Mark Rutte became Secretary General on October 1, 2024 and is advocating Ukraine’s NATO accession, backed by a parliamentary motion from D66, VVD, CDA, PvdA/GroenLinks and Volt. Croatia’s President Milanovic is blocking NATO aid to Ukraine, fearing escalation. Ukraine’s minister Sybiha is requesting a NATO invitation as part of Zelensky’s “victory plan,” which could exacerbate tensions with Russia.
The EU accelerates arms production: Germany orders €15 billion in artillery shells, Italy €20 billion in armored vehicles and tanks. In Romania, the Supreme Court overturns the November 2024 presidential election after Russian interference; pro-Russian Calin Georgescu won round one. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warns against one-sided US deals with Putin. US Vice President Vance criticizes Europe’s “censorship” and predicts a different course under Trump.
The US is considering handing NATO’s top SACEUR position, currently held by General Chris Cavoli (until summer 2025), to a European, as part of a reorganization focused on China. The US will no longer chair the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (UDCG), a group of 50 allies in Ukraine. The chairmanship has been taken over by Germany and the UK. The US will remain for the time being within the Ramstein Group, a coalition of more than 50 countries to support Ukraine.”
The Ramstein Group, an alliance of 32 NATO members and 25 European Union countries, has supplied military equipment to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion. The group was once exclusively owned by the United States under former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. The move comes amid a series of other signals from the Trump administration that the U.S. role in NATO is diminishing.
Western allies are also bracing for the potential withdrawal of thousands of troops from Europe. The U.S. currently has 100,000 troops stationed mainly in Central Europe.
According to Reuters, NATO is considering asking its member states to increase their troop levels by 50%, from 80 to 120-130 brigades, in preparation for a potential Russian threat. Anonymous sources claim that Germany will be asked for seven additional brigades (approximately 40,000 soldiers) next week. These reports, without official confirmation, fuel speculation about the alliance’s intentions. Recent warnings about Russian troops on the Finnish border and the “real” threat, as highlighted by British Army Chief Sir Roland Walker, provide context, but concrete details are lacking. NATO defense ministers will discuss the situation in Brussels on June 5, ahead of a summit in The Hague. Until official statements are made, it remains to be seen whether this news is substantiated or is the result of a media frenzy to highlight tensions.
At the NATO summit in The Hague, Rutte wanted to unanimously agree to spend 5% of GDP on defense from now on. But besides Belgium and Spain, President Trump is also obstructing the issue, as he believes that the United States does not have to adhere to this increased NATO standard. The rest must, he said. The Spanish prime minister was involved in a corruption scandal just in time and decided to agree to an adjustment in the text after a police raid on the party office. Just before the start of the NATO summit, Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez gave a televised speech and claimed his success after all. Sánchez said that Spain will be exempted from the obligation to spend 5 percent of its GDP on defense.
In his speech, the prime minister said that the 5 percent standard would be “unnecessary and disproportionate” for Spain. That is why the country will spend 2.1 percent of its GNP on defense. According to Sánchez, that is more than enough to meet NATO requirements for equipment and personnel. Belgium and Slovakia have also opted for a similar arrangement as Spain. Rutte contradicts Spain: “NATO does not have opt-outs or private agreements,” Rutte said during a press conference.
Secretary-General Rutte has proposed that allies (so not all) spend 3.5 percent on pure defense spending and 1.5 percent on things that also benefit the armed forces, such as infrastructure. The United States spent 3.4 percent on defense last year, which means the country almost meets the first part of the new standard. But Trump does not think his country needs to participate in the 5 percent standard. “We have supported NATO for so long,” he said.
Trump called Spain “a very poor payer” and said that “they have to pay what everyone else pays.” At the press conference after the NATO summit, he also gave Spain a good talking to via the two Spanish journalists present. They currently spend 1.3 percent of their GDP on defense. There was no more talk about his own unwillingness to increase. After the summit, Spain maintained that the current expenditure on the armed forces is sufficient. Spain continues to believe that NATO’s military goals can be achieved for a lower amount than NATO is currently trying to force, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said after the NATO summit.
Besides raising the standard to 5 percent, the most important achievement of the summit is the confirmation that Ukraine will become a member of NATO:
Mark Rutte literally stated during the NATO summit in The Hague on June 25, 2025: “We support Ukraine in the irreversible path to NATO membership.” This statement, made during the press conference after the summit, explicitly confirms NATO’s support for Ukraine’s future membership, in line with previous statements such as those made during the NATO summit in Washington in 2024.
Russia’s response to Rutte’s specific statement has so far been limited to the broader context of the summit. Russian Ambassador to the Netherlands VE Tarabrin spoke on Time Will Tell (Channel One, 25 June 2025) about the NATO summit and criticized the alliance, but did not directly address Rutte’s exact words. He reiterated Russia’s position that Ukraine’s NATO membership is “unacceptable” and interpreted the softer tone of the final communiqué – which omitted an explicit pledge of membership – as a sign of internal divisions within NATO. Russian state media, such as RIA Novosti, suggest that Moscow sees Rutte’s statement as rhetoric, but continues to insist on legally binding guarantees that Ukraine will not become a NATO member.
And finally, there is the recent attack by Israel and the US on Iran.
“It is not politically correct to use the term ‘regime change’ but if the current Iranian regime is not capable of MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why not have a regime change?” the president wrote. “MIGA!!!”
Trump wrote on his Truth Social after the US attack on the nuclear facilities: “ANY DEFENSE BY IRAN AGAINST THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA WILL BE ANSWERED WITH A FORCE FAR GREATER THAN ANY SEEN TONIGHT. THANK YOU! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.”
A defective electrical component caused the train disruptions during the NATO summit. The police also say that they are “strongly” considering the possibility that the fire could have been caused by sabotage. Caretaker Minister David van Weel (Justice and Security) also said at the NATO summit that he does not rule out sabotage. Other causes, such as copper theft, have also not been ruled out. ProRail also has no indications of malicious intent for the signal disruption around the airport, but a contractor is still investigating the cause. Initially, a broken connecting element in the track was identified as the culprit, but the problem was not solved after repairs.
List of NATO countries
- Albania;
- Belgium;
- Bulgaria;
- Canada;
- Denmark;
- Germany;
- Estonia;
- Finland;
- France;
- Greece;
- Hungary;
- Iceland;
- Italy;
- Croatia;
- Latvia;
- Lithuania;
- Luxemburg;
- Montenegro;
- The Netherlands;
- North Macedonia;
- Norway;
- Poland;
- Portugal;
- Romania;
- Slovenia;
- Slovakia;
- Spain;
- Czech Republic;
- Turkey;
- the United Kingdom;
- the United States;
- Sweden.
PARTNERSHIPS: • Partnership for Peace: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Ireland, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Malta, Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Austria, Russia*, Serbia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Belarus*, Switzerland • Mediterranean Dialogue: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, Mauritania, Tunisia • Istanbul Cooperation Initiative: Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates • Global Partners: Afghanistan*, Australia, Colombia, Iraq, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mongolia, New Zealand, Pakistan • Other international organisations: mainly United Nations, European Union, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
G6
The G6 formally consists of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. The G6 has agreed on the payment of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine: this year, more than 46 billion euros will go to Kyiv for the restoration of the energy infrastructure. ‘It is estimated that a total of 500 billion is needed to rebuild the country. The US and Ukraine signed a ten-year security agreement on June 13, 2024, in which the then G7 promised to provide a loan of 50 billion dollars.
The security agreement signed by President Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky aims to boost cooperation on weapons production, provide other military assistance, and increase intelligence sharing. The agreement also commits the Pentagon to another 10 years of training for the Ukrainian armed forces. The U.S. also announced a new $225 million military aid package for Kyiv, which includes “air defense interceptors; artillery systems and ammunition; armored vehicles; and anti-tank weapons.” Funding for the package will come from the $60 billion that Congress previously allocated for Ukraine’s defense spending as part of a supplemental funding bill passed in April.
G7 leaders have warned China about its role in the war between Russia and Ukraine. In a joint statement, the seven countries say that China’s aid to Russia “enables” the war. The G7 is nearing a final agreement on the use of frozen Russian assets for aid to Ukraine. This includes interest income. The European Union made the first 1.5 billion euros of frozen Russian interest and dividends from the Central Bank of Russia’s assets in Europe available for aid to Ukraine at the end of July. And that is just in time, because ratings agency Fitch downgraded Ukraine’s rating to “C”, which means inevitable default on debts. Russia in turn blocked assets of non-residents from countries it considered “unfriendly” in special accounts.
The accounts contain an estimated 6 billion euros. Ukraine must start paying interest to creditors BlackRock and Pimco on August 1 and the heavily accumulated debt will have to be repaid until 2036. Hyperinflation is looming, in addition to enormous economic problems, the budget deficit, an energy crisis and the mass emigration of Ukrainians, which has left many companies without employees and production stagnating. However, the G6 countries in Washington have failed to reach an agreement on the use of the frozen Russian assets. The president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, has stated that seizing frozen Russian assets would violate international law. The leaders of the Group have reached an agreement on how to provide approximately 50 billion dollars in Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) loans to Ukraine.
G20
The G20 summit will take place in Brazil on November 18. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who announced last month that he would skip the summit, will be represented by his foreign minister. Brazil is a member of the International Criminal Court and would theoretically be obliged to arrest Putin. Last year, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva already announced that he did not intend to have Putin arrested , but this did not convince the Russian head of state. Putin will participate virtually in the summit . The summit is dominated by the different positions on the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. Moreover, the upcoming presidency of Donald Trump casts a shadow over the summit, because this could change the balance of power in the world again.
The G20, which was founded in 1999 after the Asian financial crisis, meets annually to discuss economic issues such as trade, food and medicine security and the impact of climate change, and agreed at its last meeting in July 2024 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to work together to introduce a tax on wealthy people with assets of more than $30 million. Wealth and income inequality undermine economic growth and social cohesion and exacerbate social vulnerability, according to the declaration signed by the countries. No minimum percentage was agreed. The members of the G20 are: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, France, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, South Africa and the European Union. The African Union joined the G20 as a member in 2023. The Netherlands is not a permanent member of the G20. Before the climate summit in Azerbaijan in December, the countries must also agree on financing the energy transition with regard to poorer countries.
Mercosur
Mercosur (or Mercosul) is a free trade zone between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Venezuela. Venezuela is not part of the Trade Deal. The European Commission concluded a long-awaited trade agreement with the Mercosur countries at the end of 2024. This agreement between the European Union and the South American countries and recently also Bolivia has been negotiated for 25 years. The agreement should make trade easier. The European Union is the most important trading partner for the five South American countries. The agreement should make it easier and cheaper to sell products on each other’s markets. The agreement should facilitate trade between the Latin American countries and the European member states. Import duties on various goods and complicated administrative procedures for conducting trade on both sides will be eliminated or significantly reduced. Mercosur countries will make substantial cuts in import tariffs on European cars, textiles and machinery. Conversely, the countries will be able to export agricultural products to us more cheaply.
BRICS
The BRICS countries are increasingly gaining dominance, which is particularly beneficial to Russia, which is sanctioned by the West . It is not without reason that more and more countries are joining BRICS. Fifteen large countries are on the list of potential new members, including Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Vietnam, all of which were invited to join in August 2023. Russia is a strong supporter of the expansion of BRICS and wants Belarus to be accepted as a member.
About forty countries have expressed interest in joining the BRICS groups, of which 23 have shown concrete interest. China wants to conclude currency exchange agreements with 29 developing countries. The currency exchange agreement will represent a value of $553.49 billion in local currency without the intervention of the US dollar. The development will allow transactions of local currency in the ‘always trading mode’ on the foreign exchange market.
The currency swap allows central banks of developing countries to sign an agreement with China that would facilitate trade in local currencies. Central banks can swap their local currencies for trade with China and save millions in exchange rates. South Africa, as chair of the BRICS, will hold talks at the summit on the expansion model, principles and norms. Algeria, Bahrain, Kuwait, Morocco, Palestine, Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Senegal, Belarus, Bolivia, Venezuela, Vietnam, Cuba, Honduras, Indonesia and Thailand were also named as signatories. The BRICS countries were the fastest growing economies some twenty years ago. They are still expected to account for a large share of the global economy in the coming years.
The Chinese economy is expected to grow 1.5 times larger than the US economy, and by 2050 it is expected to dominate the global economy. The Turkish Foreign Ministry has applied to join the BRICS, which would be more in line with Turkey’s ambitions to strengthen its global influence. The application also comes amid deteriorating relations between Turkey and other members of the NATO alliance due to its continued close ties with Russia. Finance ministers from the various BRICS countries have canceled a meeting in Moscow where they were to discuss progress in developing a new financial system without the West.
The finance ministers of Egypt and the United Arab Emirates were present, and Iran sent the head of its central bank. A BRICS summit is being held in Russia, attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping, UN chief António Guterres and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, among others. A BRICS summit was held in Russia, attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping, UN chief António Guterres and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, among others. UN chief António Guterres also took part in the summit. The secretary-general spoke with Vladimir Putin there. Donald Trump demands that BRICS members do not create a new currency or support a currency other than the US dollar.
If they do, he threatens to impose a 100 percent import duty. Indonesia, the country with the world’s fourth-largest population, had previously made it clear that it wanted to join. The country’s candidacy was already supported by the BRICS group in August 2023. However, Jakarta only opted to join after a new government took office last year and is still a member of the G20. The Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said that it welcomes the announcement of the accession and that “BRICS membership is a strategic way to increase cooperation and partnership with other developing countries.” By being part of BRICS, Indonesia now belongs to a partnership that represents almost half the world’s population. When the BRIC countries met in Moscow last fall, the question of how to sideline the dollar was at the top of the agenda.
China’s order to pause Boeing planes and US parts, combined with a potential recession from trade wars and EU domestic arms production, bolsters BRICS coup prospects by weakening the dollar ( 15–20% vs. euro in 2025, 25–30% by 2030). These “bears on the road” – fueled by Trump’s impulsive tariffs (145% China, 100% BRICS threat), Wangu’s gold, and Russia’s anti-dollar push – make a coup plausible, especially in a confidence crisis. The dollar remains resilient (58% reserves), but the chaos is mounting.
The upcoming 17th BRICS summit is currently scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil , in July 2025. This is a significant event as Brazil will assume the rotating presidency of the BRICS bloc. The BRICS bloc consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and most recently Indonesia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia has also been invited to join, reflecting the bloc’s ongoing expansion efforts. Putin is not attending the meeting due to his international arrest warrant and will attend digitally. President Xi of China has also decided not to attend.
Under the theme ‘Strengthening cooperation in the Global South for more inclusive and sustainable governance’, Brazil has developed a comprehensive agenda focused on six main priorities:
- Global health cooperation: initiatives aimed at ensuring equitable access to medicines and vaccines, including the launch of the BRICS Partnership for the Elimination of Socially Determined Diseases and Neglected Tropical Diseases.
- Trade, Investment and Finance: Discussions on financial market reforms, the use of local currencies and the development of alternative payment platforms to improve trade and investment flows.
- Climate Change: Adoption of a BRICS Climate Leadership Agenda, including a Leaders’ Framework Statement on Climate Finance to guide structural changes in the financial sector.
- Governance of Artificial Intelligence: promoting inclusive and responsible international governance of AI technologies to harness their potential for social, economic and environmental development.
- Multilateral Peace and Security Architecture: efforts to reform global peace and security systems to effectively address conflicts, prevent humanitarian crises, and promote diplomatic solutions.
- Institutional development: improving the structure and coherence of the BRICS countries to ensure effective governance and decision-making.
In preparation for the summit, Brazil will coordinate more than 100 ministerial and technical meetings in Brazil from February to July 2025. These meetings are intended to strengthen cooperation and pave the way for the leaders’ summit in Rio de Janeiro.
The summit comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly with the United States. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they seek alternatives to the US dollar in international trade, underscoring ongoing discussions within the bloc over the introduction of an alternative payment system independent of the dollar.
Corruption and espionage within the EU bastion
Within the EU budget, more than 8.2 billion euros were spent incorrectly due to unclear regulations or cutbacks. The number of “errors” has increased in recent years. The European Court of Auditors estimates the error rate for the 2023 EU budget at 5.6 percent, which means that 10.7 billion euros of the total 191.2 billion euros in EU expenditure was spent dubiously or incorrectly. This is already the 4th time that there are significantly more errors in the figures for EU expenditure. The European Court of Auditors therefore rejected the Commission’s expenditure. During the audit, the Court of Auditors also incidentally identified fourteen cases of suspected fraud . According to the European Court of Auditors, tens of billions of European money that was intended for green projects has been spent incorrectly. For example, money went to salaries of staff who were not involved in green projects at all. 34.5 billion euros appears to have been spent incorrectly. For example, on salaries, but also on an IT system of a project that did not contribute to greening at all. The investigation shows that money even went to a project that caused pollution. It concerns billions from a large European fund that was created during the corona crisis. Part of the money was supposed to go to projects that stimulated the sustainability of the economy. The EU wrongly claimed that 275 billion euros went to greening.
European Parliament President Roberta Metsola and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are said to have purchased media outlets on a large scale to influence public opinion in the run-up to the European elections, according to an investigation by Il Fatto Quotidiano. It concerns a slush fund of no less than 132 million euros that ended up in a roundabout way with media outlets. The money was channeled to media outlets via a private advertising agency, Havas Media France, with the aim of paying for EU-friendly stories and thus swaying public opinion in the run-up to the elections. In Italy, major media outlets such as Repubblica are said to have been paid directly to publish pro-EU reporting.
Zajączkowska-Hernik, who has been the Confederation’s spokeswoman and a Member of the European Parliament since December 2023, took the opportunity during a debate on von der Leyen’s proposed programme to give her a good talking to and deliver a scathing criticism . She said: “Mrs Ursula, it is high time that someone told you directly what the vast majority of Europeans think of you,” She criticised von der Leyen’s previous election as a “huge mistake”, that many regretted their decision and accused von der Leyen of promoting policies such as the European Green Deal, which she said “are destroying the European economy and agriculture “. She also condemned what she called “the EU’s climate madness”. Zajączkowska-Hernik addressed von der Leyen directly, asking: “How can you not be ashamed of promoting something like the migration pact?” She blamed Europe’s open attitude towards migrants for putting women and children at risk. She also held von der Leyen responsible for all the negative consequences and stated that she should go to jail for this policy. The MEP dramatically tore up two sheets of paper with the words “European Green Deal” and “European Migration Pact” during her speech to symbolize her rejection of these initiatives. She called for “a Europe of free and sovereign nations, not a sick, left-wing ideology” and warned that von der Leyen’s continued leadership would lead to “a further decline of the European Union.” Zajączkowska-Hernik joined the Europe of Sovereign Nations group. The European Commission then presented new plans to improve Europe’s competitive position vis-à-vis the United States and China, abandoning the Green Deal and going for better competitiveness. The main part of the plan is to make it easier for companies to report on green rules drawn up by the EU. Ursula von der Leyen, is putting her own showpiece, the European Green Deal, on hold under pressure from the US. According to many European politicians, the Green Deal is an obstacle for European business. This is due to the many rules and administrative tasks that the deal entails. A large group of European companies including Nestlé, Unilever and Primark are not at all enthusiastic about the plans because they had already invested a lot in the Green Deal.
‘Pfizergate’
Von Der Leyen was hit by a wave of lawsuits in early April 2024. It was announced that she was under criminal investigation for buying some 900 million COVID-19 vaccine doses directly through Pfizer boss Albert Bourla for 71 billion euros in 2021. Bourla made tens of billions from the deal that Von der Leyen helped close. Von der Leyen deleted internal app traffic and refused to appear before a committee of inquiry.
Due to the extreme public attention, the European Public Prosecutor’s Office nevertheless launched a fraud investigation into the European Union’s purchase of coronavirus vaccines. In May, the Court of Justice of the EU ruled that the European Commission must release text messages between von der Leyen and Bourla. The messages were exchanged during negotiations on a multi-billion dollar deal at the height of the coronavirus pandemic. The New York Times brought the case after von der Leyen’s team refused to release the messages. The Commission argued that the text messages were untraceable, but the court rejected that argument, ruling that it had “violated the principle of good administration”. The European Parliament has also gone to the European Court of Justice, because it believes that the European Commission has wrongly given Hungary 10 billion euros in frozen European subsidies. In doing so, the Commission is said to have given in to blackmail. Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán has stressed that the EU leadership “does not deserve a second chance” and called for a “ change of power ” in Brussels.
The prosecutor has urged the European Council to demand the resignation of Ursula von der Leyen and her commissioners. The President of the European Council has proposed the idea of Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis taking over von der Leyen’s job. The prosecutor called on the EPP to withdraw von der Leyen’s candidacy for President of the European Commission and to ban her from holding posts in European institutions while she is under criminal investigation. The lawyer cites Articles 245 and 247 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU), which deal with acts incompatible with official duties and serious misconduct.
The case revolves around the disclosure of phone calls and text messages between von der Leyen and Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, with whom they negotiated vaccine contracts during the COVID-19 pandemic. Frédéric Baldan, a Belgian lobbyist, filed the initial complaint, which led to an investigation by Belgian authorities in early 2023. Hungary and Poland have since joined the lawsuit. The letter criticizes von der Leyen for refusing to disclose the vaccine contracts and her communications with Bourla, claiming that her actions violate “public morality” and erode “legitimate trust” in the European Commission.
The letter states that von der Leyen and her commissioners are no longer able to carry out their duties, which is contrary to the principle of good administration as set out in Article 41 of the Charter of Fundamental Rights. The claimant also questions the involvement of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO), which has requested to handle the case. According to Baldan, this move is intended to nullify the civil parties involved and potentially cancel the investigation, as the EPPO may not have the resources to continue its work until 2024. The European Council, made up of the heads of state and government of the member states, meets behind closed doors, making it unclear how certain decisions were reached. Ursula von der Leyen will face a vote of confidence in the European Parliament.
On July 7, at the end of the afternoon, the European Parliament (EP) will consider the motion of censure of Von de Leyen by Gheorghe Piperea in Strasbourg. The Romanian is a member of the right-wing conservative ECR group, which also includes the Dutch SGP. The secret text messages sent by Von de Leyen to the boss of vaccine manufacturer Pfizer and the behind-the-scenes negotiations on almost 2 billion vaccines are for many an example of the lack of transparency.
A. whereas in 2022 the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) opened an investigation into the conduct of the European Commission in negotiating and concluding contracts for the procurement of a COVID-19 vaccine with Pfizer, which is still ongoing in 2025 and raises legitimate concerns about possible legal and ethical breaches, as well as possible irregularities in the management of Union funds;
B. whereas in its order of 5 October 2023 in Case T-36/23, Stevi – The New York Times v Commission , the General Court of the European Union held that the Commission had failed to provide sufficient legal justification for its refusal to disclose the requested documents relating to the negotiations on the Pfizer vaccine;
C. whereas the Commission has breached its obligations under Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001 regarding public access to documents and infringed the principles of transparency, good governance and institutional accountability enshrined in the Treaties;
D. whereas the Commission has allocated EUR 35 billion in public funds to COVID-19 vaccines but has failed to ensure transparency and accountability, notably with doses worth EUR 4 billion remaining unused, raising serious concerns about financial oversight and administrative failure;
E. whereas in its judgment of 14 May 2025, the General Court annulled the European Commission’s decision to refuse access to text messages exchanged between Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla between 1 January 2021 and 11 May 2022 concerning the procurement of COVID-19 vaccines;
F. whereas the Court of Auditors, in its Special Report No 22/2024, adopted on 26 September 2024, identified serious shortcomings in the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), including insufficient links between disbursed funds and actual costs, weak verification mechanisms, risks of double financing and delays in achieving investment objectives, raising serious concerns about the Commission’s oversight of one of the largest post-COVID financial instruments;
G. whereas the Court of Auditors has pointed out that the lack of proper controls and the reliance by Member States on self-reporting increase the risk of ‘double funding’, a situation where the same actions are funded several times, leading to inefficiency and potential misuse of funds;
H. whereas transparency and accountability are fundamental principles of the democratic legitimacy of the Union, in accordance with Article 10(3) of the TEU, and ensure public trust in the European Union institutions, particularly in contexts of major public health challenges and significant financial commitments;
I. whereas on 23 April 2025 the Committee on Legal Affairs unanimously adopted a non-binding opinion rejecting the use by the European Commission of Article 122 TFEU as a legal basis for the proposal for a regulation establishing the Security Action for Europe (SAFE), a EUR 150 billion defence financing initiative;
J. whereas the opinion of the Committee on Legal Affairs states that the Commission’s recourse to Article 122 TFEU does not constitute a valid justification in cases of emergency, as the provision is intended for short-term measures addressing acute crises, and not for long-term defence investments;
K. whereas serious concerns have been raised about the unlawful interference by the Commission in elections in Member States such as Romania and Germany through a distorted application of Regulation (EU) 2022/2065 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 October 2022 on a single market for digital services and amending Directive 2000/31/EC (Digital Services Act),[3] which is intended to protect consumers but has been misused to justify voting restrictions and annulments of elections;
Conclusion: Concludes that the Commission under the leadership of President Ursula von der Leyen no longer enjoys the confidence of Parliament to uphold the principles of transparency, accountability and good governance, which are essential for a democratic Union.
July 7, 2025, at the end of the afternoon, the debate will follow on the motion by the European Parliament against the President of the European Commission and whether she should be allowed to continue with her second term.
Piperea collected 72 signatures (10 percent of MEPs) needed to table a motion of no confidence. If the motion were to pass, the entire Commission would have to resign according to the rules, and that chance is very slim. The two-thirds majority is not expected to be achieved by a long shot. Von der Leyen’s Christian Democrats, by far the largest party in the European Parliament, do not support the motion and the Social Democrats, the second largest party, certainly will not do so either.
According to the European Court of Auditors, the EU has misused tens of billions of European money that was intended for green projects. For example, money went to salaries of staff who were not involved in green projects at all. 34.5 billion euros appears to have been misused. For example, on salaries, but also on an IT system of a project that did not contribute to greening at all. The investigation shows that money even went to a project that caused pollution. This concerns billions from a large European fund that was set up during the corona crisis. Part of the money was supposed to go to projects that stimulated the sustainability of the economy. The EU wrongly claimed that 275 billion euros went to greening.
People with influential political positions are involved in 14 billion euros in suspicious money transfers to and from the Netherlands with money from bribery, extortion and embezzlement from the State . This is evident from research by the Anti Money Laundering Centre (AMLC), which works together with the police and the Public Prosecution Service (OM). The research focused on money transfers by politically exposed persons (PEPs), such as heads of state, politicians, ambassadors and members of the Supreme Court.
An investigation into Russian influence is also currently underway . The reason for this was, among other things, a striking speech by Marcel de Graaff (ex-PVV, now FVD), who maintained that Ukraine houses ‘children’s kennels with surrogate mothers’ for the benefit of ‘Western pedophile networks’.